A card drawing simulation with 10000 trials

Cards Drawn Games Sum 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 5 5 4 12 17 5 52 69 6 269 338 7 306 644 8 510 1154 9 674 1828 10 756 2584 11 843 3427 12 898 4325 13 928 5253 14 846 6099 15 787 6886 16 743 7629 17 630 8259 18 506 8765 19 380 9145 20 295 9440 21 215 9655 22 146 9801 23 96 9897 24 39 9936 25 31 9967 26 20 9987 27 7 9994 28 3 9997 29 2 9999 30 1 10000 31 0 10000 32 0 10000 33 0 10000 34 0 10000 35 0 10000 36 0 10000 37 0 10000 38 0 10000 39 0 10000 40 0 10000 41 0 10000 42 0 10000 43 0 10000 44 0 10000 45 0 10000 46 0 10000 47 0 10000 48 0 10000 49 0 10000 50 0 10000

Cards in deck: Hand size: Target cards: Search cards: Draw One cards: Draw Two cards: Desired number of   target cards: Keep the starting hand if you have at least: Target: Search: Draw Two: Or: Target: Search: Draw Two:   Trials: Notes Mulligan rules are for Lord of the Rings LCG, where you draw a starting hand of six cards, then choose to keep them or redraw a new set of six. Cards that draw two cards instantly do so, which aren't counted. E.g. If my first card is a draw two, and then the 3rd card in the deck is a target card, that's effectively only one card draw to find a target card. If you keep your hand, it will be treated as if you drew 6 cards, so there will tend to be a large statistical bump at 6 cards. If you want to turn off mulligans, set your keep targets to be 7+, which will be impossible since you have a six card starting hand. I have 3 Light of Valinor in my 50 card deck; when should I expect to draw at least 1? Decksize = 50, Target = 3, Search = 0, Desired = 1 I have 12 restricted attachments and 1 Word of Command in my deck with the One Ring; when should I expect to draw at least 5? Decksize = 48 (because I get The One Ring and a Master card at the beginning), Target = 12, Search = 1, Desired = 5